The political picture

I am fortunate to be a Senior Advisor for the wonderful team at Seahorse Environmental who are award-winning policy, strategy and communication specialists. The agency recently organised a roundtable under the Chatham House Rule, where participants heard candid insight from three of the main political parties on how they view the environmental debate panning out over the year ahead. Here are my five main takeaways:

The Rishi Rollback

Partly based upon the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election result, the Conservatives have identified environmental policies as being a potential ‘wedge issue’ where they can create clear distinction: painting Labour as a party that is restricting personal choice and is committed to ‘tax and spend’. 

Whether this analysis is accurate is open to debate as there were a combination of factors in the Uxbridge constituency around ULEZ which are unlikely to be repeated elsewhere. Subsequent by-election results haven’t led to a bounce in Conservative fortunes.

The narrative shift will have minimum long-term impact on policy objectives but does change the optics. It is possible that the Conservatives will be surprised at how negatively this plays out on the international stage, hitting the UK’s global reputation where the party was seen as a progressive leader.

If the Conservatives don’t win the next election, there is a danger that the change in narrative will progress to a regressive shift in policy ambitions. Those engaging with the Conservative party should recognise this danger and be highlighting the positive changes that have been achieved during their time in office, encouraging them to see the benefits of these environmentally positive changes in reviving political fortunes.

Polarisation

The narrative shift creates polarisation which poses potential risks for those advocating for change – particularly the environmental movement. There is a danger that environmentalists could be seen as a negative force interfering with daily lives and adding to the cost-of-living crisis.

Campaigners need to think carefully about how to avoid this trap. It may be that initially staying silent on contentious issues is the pragmatic way forward. Instead, can the environmental movement find others to voice concerns about political statements and then weigh in as a voice of reason, rather than contention? A good example of this approach in action is that it was Ford and Eon who led the backlash against the government’s announcement that it was planning to delay the ban on the sale of petrol and diesel cars.

Campaigners need to be careful about how they frame their ambitions, ensuring that they address wider social and financial concerns. A good example is focussing on energy efficiency, where there are multiple benefits against which it is hard to argue.

It is the economy, stupid

The environmental debate, particularly around the transition to Net Zero, is increasingly becoming an economic one. How are the required changes to be funded? Who are the winners and who are the losers? 

Labour has been bold with the proposed £28 billion Green Prosperity Plan, which has already come under scrutiny. They also have a challenge from the Unions, particularly those representing the oil and gas sectors.

There is still ambiguity around the economic impact of the shift to net Zero. What are the new jobs that will be created, what skills will be required? Is it feasible for those working in sectors that will be negatively impacted to be retrained and potentially relocated for the new economy? Clearly and authentically addressing these economic questions will be increasingly important for those advocating for change.

A new government?

The polls indicate that there will be a change of government at the next election. The Labour party strategy over the coming months appears to be how to avoid snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The party will continue its mission-led approach, focussed on five core objectives that will form the backbone of their manifesto.

This cautious approach makes it unlikely that there will be any radical new policy announcements. The party will be particularly concerned not to be painted as reverting to tax and spend policies which will be articulated through Rachel Reeves’ narrative of ‘securonomics’.

Labour has not been in power for many years and lack recent experience of government. They will be seeking solutions and constructive ideas. Organisations engaging with Labour should focus on the first 100 days of a new government, highlighting what early wins could be delivered. 

There will be opportunities to advocate for new models of delivery and a more strategic approach. This could be the time to push for a Strategic Land Use Framework or a Net Zero Delivery Unit.

Don’t Forget the Lib Dems

The party is in positive spirits due to recent by-election successes and has expectations of winning more seats at the next election. With the political turmoil currently hitting the SNP, they could once again become the third largest. This matters: it will give the leader more questions at PMQs and boost party presence on Select Committees.

The party is looking to regain recognition that it is environmentally progressive. It has some impressively knowledgeable MPs, has a strong local presence and is taking advantage of growing concerns about water pollution - particularly in the south-east of England.  

Summary

With the implications of the climate crisis and biodiversity loss becoming ever more apparent, constructive engagement with politicians is essential. The next twelve months will be a period of flux and opportunity. Having insight in how the environment fits with the broader political narrative is crucial, which is why the roundtable organised by Seahorse Environmental is timely. If you would like to know more about their activities, please email info@seahorseenvironmental.co.uk.